China's government is targeting 8 percent growth next year as the global economy recovers. "Based on the economic growth target of about 8 percent, set by the central government, we aim for industrial output growth at about 11 percent," said Li Yizhong in a webcast on his ministry's site.
Li's comment was the first indication of Beijing's 2010 growth target, a figure that usually is released after the start of the year. The annual target has been set at 8 percent for several years, though growth has exceeded that. Forecasts by private sector economists for China's economic growth next year range from 9 to 11.9 percent, well above the government target.
China's economy expanded 7.7 percent for the first nine months this year, helped by the government's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package. A government report this month said full-year growth is forecast at 8.3 percent. The World Bank is forecasting 8.4 percent.
China's leaders vowed at an annual planning meeting this month to keep economic stimulus and easy credit policies in place. China's industrial production in the first 11 months of this year rose 10.3 percent from the same period last year. Growth in November alone was 19.2 percent over a year earlier.
poniedziałek, 21 grudnia 2009
środa, 16 grudnia 2009
Inflation rate climbs to 3.3 percent
The Central Statistical Office (GUS) informed on Tuesday that prices paid by consumers in November were 3.3 percent higher than in the same month of the previous year.
The y/y inflation was 0.2 percent higher than in October. The prices were pulled up mainly by the food sector, where the increase was 0.7 percent as compared to the previous month and the price of petrol which jumped 0.9 percent.
The main reason behind the more than 3 percent increase in prices was an escalation in fees on apartments and food prices. The inflation would have been even higher if it was not for a fall in the prices of clothing and shoes.
According to analysts, in December as well as in January the inflation will again be higher, but next year the dynamics will begin to reverse. Within less than six months, the inflation rate is projected to drop to 2.5 percent, according to the targets of the Monetary Policy Council.
The y/y inflation was 0.2 percent higher than in October. The prices were pulled up mainly by the food sector, where the increase was 0.7 percent as compared to the previous month and the price of petrol which jumped 0.9 percent.
The main reason behind the more than 3 percent increase in prices was an escalation in fees on apartments and food prices. The inflation would have been even higher if it was not for a fall in the prices of clothing and shoes.
According to analysts, in December as well as in January the inflation will again be higher, but next year the dynamics will begin to reverse. Within less than six months, the inflation rate is projected to drop to 2.5 percent, according to the targets of the Monetary Policy Council.
wtorek, 8 grudnia 2009
Japan unveils $80.6 billion stimulus plan
Japan's government on Tuesday unveiled a new economic stimulus package which includes a 7.2 trillion yen ($80.6 billion) in spending in an effort to appease demands for more public assistance.
However, the plan was "largely expected and there was a delay in approving the stimulus due to disagreements within the coalition, but the final amount is not a big surprise. The government plans to decide on Dec. 15 on the outline of the second extra budget for the current fiscal year ending in March to pay for the stimulus package, Finance Minster Hirohisa Fujii said.
Fujii also said the budget will likely involve sales of new government securities worth around 9.3 trillion, bringing the total debt issuance for the current fiscal year to a record 53.5 trillion yen, according to the report. Prime Minister Yuko Hatoyama's first stimulus plan includes 3.5 trillion yen to help regions, 600 billion yen for employment and 800 billion yen on environmental initiatives.
The package is timely as it comes just ahead of the likely sharp downward revision in Q2 Gross Domestic Product.
However, the plan was "largely expected and there was a delay in approving the stimulus due to disagreements within the coalition, but the final amount is not a big surprise. The government plans to decide on Dec. 15 on the outline of the second extra budget for the current fiscal year ending in March to pay for the stimulus package, Finance Minster Hirohisa Fujii said.
Fujii also said the budget will likely involve sales of new government securities worth around 9.3 trillion, bringing the total debt issuance for the current fiscal year to a record 53.5 trillion yen, according to the report. Prime Minister Yuko Hatoyama's first stimulus plan includes 3.5 trillion yen to help regions, 600 billion yen for employment and 800 billion yen on environmental initiatives.
The package is timely as it comes just ahead of the likely sharp downward revision in Q2 Gross Domestic Product.
poniedziałek, 7 grudnia 2009
China's leaders vow to keep stimulus, easy credit
China's leaders wrapped up an annual strategy meeting Monday vowing to keep economic stimulus and easy credit policies in place to support a stable recovery, while improving the quality of the country's often chaotic economic growth.
The meeting in Beijing, presided over by President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, ended as expected with calls to ensure the recovery from the global crisis remains stable, the official Xinhua News Agency said in dispatches posted on the government's main Web site.
Officials attending the three-day Central Economic Work Conference agreed that the global slowdown had added to the urgency for China to adjust its model of economic growth, which many economists say is excessively dominated by state-led industries, rather than more sustainable, consumer-led demand. China's economy is forecast to grow 8.3 percent this year, after dipping to a low of 6.1 percent in the first quarter and since recovering to 8.9 percent in July-September.
Like other major economies, China remains wary of pulling back from stimulus policies put in place late last year, given the weakness of key export markets in the U.S. and Europe, where unemployment has continued to rise despite signs the worst of the crisis may be past. To counter the slump in exports, Beijing announced a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package and urged state-controlled banks to lend lavishly to support a slew of public works projects.
Now, the emphasis is shifting to promoting consumer spending and private investment -- drivers of domestic demand that are seen as crucial for future growth. While consumer demand has remained resilient despite the slowdown earlier in the year, it still accounts for less than half of China's economic activity -- well below the levels in many other major economies.
The meeting in Beijing, presided over by President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, ended as expected with calls to ensure the recovery from the global crisis remains stable, the official Xinhua News Agency said in dispatches posted on the government's main Web site.
Officials attending the three-day Central Economic Work Conference agreed that the global slowdown had added to the urgency for China to adjust its model of economic growth, which many economists say is excessively dominated by state-led industries, rather than more sustainable, consumer-led demand. China's economy is forecast to grow 8.3 percent this year, after dipping to a low of 6.1 percent in the first quarter and since recovering to 8.9 percent in July-September.
Like other major economies, China remains wary of pulling back from stimulus policies put in place late last year, given the weakness of key export markets in the U.S. and Europe, where unemployment has continued to rise despite signs the worst of the crisis may be past. To counter the slump in exports, Beijing announced a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package and urged state-controlled banks to lend lavishly to support a slew of public works projects.
Now, the emphasis is shifting to promoting consumer spending and private investment -- drivers of domestic demand that are seen as crucial for future growth. While consumer demand has remained resilient despite the slowdown earlier in the year, it still accounts for less than half of China's economic activity -- well below the levels in many other major economies.
piątek, 4 grudnia 2009
Another 100,000 jobs lost in the U.S.
Nearly two years after the Great Recession began, the U.S. economy still is shedding jobs, economists said ahead of the Labor Department's November jobs report.
Another 100,000 jobs were destroyed during November, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed. It would be the 23rd consecutive month of job losses, the longest losing streak since the 1930s. The official unemployment rate is expected to remain at 10.2%, the highest since 1983.
After the steep drop in gross domestic product in late 2008 and early 2009, the economy is growing again, but it's not growing fast enough to create any jobs. So far, at least 7.4 million jobs have been lost, an estimate that's likely to be revised to more than 8 million.
However, most economists we surveyed think the economy will continue to grow at about a 3% annual pace through the middle of next year. That should be just fast enough to encourage some businesses to increase the work week for their remaining workers and to start hiring again.
Because so many jobs were lost at the end of 2008 (and, to a lesser extent, at the end of 2007), the seasonal adjustment process could be assuming that all those losses were due to normal seasonal variations, and not to the extremely distressed economy. That means that November's payroll figures will likely overstate what's really going on
Another 100,000 jobs were destroyed during November, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed. It would be the 23rd consecutive month of job losses, the longest losing streak since the 1930s. The official unemployment rate is expected to remain at 10.2%, the highest since 1983.
After the steep drop in gross domestic product in late 2008 and early 2009, the economy is growing again, but it's not growing fast enough to create any jobs. So far, at least 7.4 million jobs have been lost, an estimate that's likely to be revised to more than 8 million.
However, most economists we surveyed think the economy will continue to grow at about a 3% annual pace through the middle of next year. That should be just fast enough to encourage some businesses to increase the work week for their remaining workers and to start hiring again.
Because so many jobs were lost at the end of 2008 (and, to a lesser extent, at the end of 2007), the seasonal adjustment process could be assuming that all those losses were due to normal seasonal variations, and not to the extremely distressed economy. That means that November's payroll figures will likely overstate what's really going on
czwartek, 3 grudnia 2009
S&P cuts Dubai company ratings
International ratings agency Standard & Poor's says it has cut the ratings of six Dubai government-backed entities to junk status amid worries about the emirate's willingness to back its indebted companies.
S&P said in a statement Thursday that the downgrades reflect its view that the Dubai, while committed to backing its government-backed companies, "does not consider (their) credit standing or financial obligations as its priority responsibilities."
The moves come as Dubai World, the emirate's biggest conglomerate, is looking to restructure roughly $26 billion of its $60 billion in debt.
The news has sparked fears that heavily indebted Dubai could default on its debt obligations, estimated to be as high as $100 billion.
S&P said in a statement Thursday that the downgrades reflect its view that the Dubai, while committed to backing its government-backed companies, "does not consider (their) credit standing or financial obligations as its priority responsibilities."
The moves come as Dubai World, the emirate's biggest conglomerate, is looking to restructure roughly $26 billion of its $60 billion in debt.
The news has sparked fears that heavily indebted Dubai could default on its debt obligations, estimated to be as high as $100 billion.
British services-sector recovery slows
Business activity in Britain's services sector slowed slightly in November, according to a monthly survey of purchasing managers.
The CIPS/Markit purchasing managers index for the sector slipped to 56.6 from a reading of 56.9 in October, coming in below expectations for a slight rise to 57.0.
Services are the dominant sector in the British economy. A reading of more than 50 means a majority of managers saw a rise in activity, while a figure of less than 50 signals a decline in activity.
The survey found the strongest rise in incoming new business since September 2007. Businesses, however, continued to shed jobs for the 19th consecutive month, although the overall pace of job losses was the slowest in more than a year, the report said.
The CIPS/Markit purchasing managers index for the sector slipped to 56.6 from a reading of 56.9 in October, coming in below expectations for a slight rise to 57.0.
Services are the dominant sector in the British economy. A reading of more than 50 means a majority of managers saw a rise in activity, while a figure of less than 50 signals a decline in activity.
The survey found the strongest rise in incoming new business since September 2007. Businesses, however, continued to shed jobs for the 19th consecutive month, although the overall pace of job losses was the slowest in more than a year, the report said.
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